Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.820450 38.920006 45.598375 53.422116 62.303823 72.040387 83.487440
2025-02-02 25.295985 33.790026 43.972833 56.937758 72.852253 91.590872 115.150383
2025-02-09 20.348854 29.844886 42.050730 58.582885 80.049434 106.618605 141.583026
2025-02-16 16.796620 26.731511 40.289038 59.625853 85.911156 119.764844 165.934360
2025-02-23 13.827049 23.763111 38.094673 59.513021 89.832411 130.254928 187.091658
2025-03-02 11.246772 20.846452 35.456060 58.277737 91.823501 137.982387 204.694801
2025-03-09 9.444944 18.791624 33.738230 58.039045 94.973655 147.219128 224.544463
2025-03-16 7.387603 15.914208 30.315864 54.766132 93.272997 149.342773 234.396872
2025-03-23 6.584443 15.091756 30.077885 56.364751 98.871860 162.094590 259.728374
2025-03-30 5.508405 13.550958 28.404278 55.415384 100.368769 168.777228 276.454415
2025-04-06 5.122298 13.299162 28.947063 58.173306 107.846920 184.699937 307.337085
2025-04-13 4.003033 11.292072 26.013308 54.625333 104.782497 184.275546 313.657915
2025-04-20 3.560261 10.759823 25.955161 56.447416 111.224723 199.691874 345.905363
2025-04-27 3.330121 10.694559 26.844133 60.149282 121.230613 221.449445 389.212796
2025-05-04 2.949961 10.166810 26.701932 61.870701 127.876462 238.084007 425.173817
2025-05-11 2.574351 9.550838 26.271357 62.961011 133.427456 253.135083 459.173008
2025-05-18 2.173236 8.748114 25.297237 62.843078 136.732692 264.548982 487.719172
2025-05-25 1.769580 7.805700 23.839636 61.551776 137.721525 272.024342 510.068420
2025-06-01 1.486650 7.144400 22.935108 61.302235 140.607338 282.814694 538.205403
2025-06-08 1.117031 6.035329 20.699582 57.879671 137.060716 282.138076 547.067628
2025-06-15 1.001494 5.813798 20.741675 59.551591 143.651974 299.668737 587.311319
2025-06-22 0.814563 5.228125 19.683204 58.558741 144.779027 307.384117 610.974674
2025-06-29 0.765855 5.213332 20.241579 61.442600 154.019265 330.223250 661.512704